Using evidence-based statistical analysis, we provide you with targeted Confidence Intervals, or even more targeted Probability Analysis.
Over our 25 years of financial modeling for films and slates and funds, we have developed sophisticated methods for modeling a film or films in distribution. Because of our hard-won proprietary data and years of deep diving into markets arcana, leveraging our baleen whale tendencies toward information, we have modeled hundreds of films, from the quietly beautiful “Sweet Land,” to the challenging comedy of “Sleeping Dogs Lie” and the blockbuster-sized upcoming “The Meg.” All of these films were modeled using all of our skills, but we are continually seeking to enhance the quality of our work, and now we have again.
In this pursuit we have developed algorithms which take key data through thousands of bootstrapped iterations that can be used to derive two levels of analysis.
We here at FilmProfit have devoted significant time and effort into formulating a statistically meaningful approach to estimating Confidence and Probability (two different things in statistics) in our modeling for a single film (Illustrated below at different potential budget targets) and for slates of films. We have performed these analyses and refined the output tools to where we can now confidently share them with our clients.
Illustrated below is a study (please do not try to rely on the numbers shown below, as they have been sanitized before publishing) that we did where we not only wanted to know the pool’s targeted performance, but the various budget ranges and their characteristics bounded by Level of Confidence. Of course, this is merely an illustration, but the beauty of this approach is that it takes us well beyond our typical projections modeling in three scenarios, while also increasing the confidence of the models. The statistical validity of our approach has been verified and used in real-world situations, for both single films and slates, for finished films and business planning for future films.
Above is an illustration of a method we have developed for illustrating Confidence Levels when studying the potential performance of your film across a range of markets. Our models take bootstrapped datasets and estimate these confidence levels based on target fee and costs structures. This can be done for:
• A Single Film
• A Slate of Films
• A Fund Strategy
We can divine market performances for a range of budgets determined by the data, so as to target maximum potential ROI and effective budget, or targeted to a single budget, based on bootstrapping thousands of iterations from our dataset.